Friday 6 April 2018

My investment strategy for upcoming General Election


I believe everyone also agree that General Election will be very soon, right?
So even though I am not a very fashionable person,
but since G.E. is coming soon,
of course I need to follow the trend and write an investment article about G.E..

 Before start talking about the coming G.E.,
is better to review how did I invest in previous G.E.,
used some pass stories to perfect myself,
so that everyone will think that I am genius .............LOL just joking~

 Anyway,
I started to invest since year 2011,
so the G.E. in year 2013 was my first time to experience it as a shares investor,
actually that was also my first time as a voter.

 I remember that before the voting date,
the shares market was covered by tensed and nervous atmosphere,
a lot of people sold most of their shares,
holding a lot of cash in preparation of a bear market after election day.

 At that time I was very impressed by them,
Wow.... you all can predict the movement of the market at the future,
must be some genius.

 As for me,
I ALL IN at shares market with my cash, and used some SMF,
which meant that even I ALL IN already,
but I still can buy more shares if correction did happen after election day.

 Then,
G.E. ended, the result were out.

 The next day, the shares market was totally greenish.

 The market value of my investment portfolio,
greatly increased within 1 month,
coupled with the money I earned from active income,
my portfolio value was increased by around 40%.

 That was what happened before and after G.E. year 2013.
How was it?
I dared to ALL IN at shares market before G.E.,
and earned a lot of money after election day,
did I look like a genius in investment?

 Okay,
before you start to bow down before me and worship me,
I have to admit that I am not God,
I couldn't predict the movement of shares market.

 At that time,
I had no idea what will the election result be,
and also I didn't know what will happen to the shares market after election.

 For me,
everything that will happens at the future are all "UNKNOWN".

 Anyway,
at that time a lot of people chose to sell shares and hold cash,
most probably because of the shocking election result at year 2008,
which caused a huge correction at shares market.

 At that time,
a question rose within myself,
yeah is alright if you keep cash just in case there is correction,
but what if no correction?
Instead, the market become bullish?
Then those money that you were able to earn all , right?

 Thinking that the shares market confirm will have correction right after G.E.,
it was like you are gambling and put all your bets on the correction of shares market.

 Anyway,
it is worthy to try though~
You will have 1/3 chance to be correct since shares market will only has 3 outcomes:
rise, drop or no changes.

 Wow,
you always have 1/3 chance to bet correctly,
the winning chance is so high,
no wonder so many people treating shares market as casino~

 Anyway,
I always think that INVESTMENT IS NOT GAMBLING, IS A PLAN.

 Since it is a plan,
then we must plan carefully.
After election, if the shares market drops, I will bla bla bla...............
After election, if the shares market rises, I will bla bla bla...............
After election, if no changes at the shares market, I will bla bla bla...............

 By considering all the possible outcomes and how will you react to each possible situation,
then that is what I called it as a PLAN,
A PLAN FOR INVESTMENT.

 I believe everyone learnt about Decision / Probability Tree during high school era:
Yeah right,
those Maths question like the probability of picking blue ball,
then the probability of picking red ball.
Or the probability that it will rain or not, then the probability of being late.

 You can see that even for a thing which has a very very low probability,
we still put it into the Tree for calculation,
because we need to include all the probabilities.

 However,
when come to investment,
everyone suddenly 100% confirm that this stock for sure will drops, that one for sure will rises,
the thinking mode became one straight line only:
Only consider about blue balls, ignoring the red balls,
ignoring all other possibilities.

 This kind of knowledge which not only useful in investment, but also in our lives,
since we already learnt at school,
why don't we apply it now?

 That's all for the Maths lesson.

 Anyway,
During year 2013,
my plan was like this:
After election, if the shares market rises, at least I already ALL IN my cash, so I won't miss the chance to earn money.
After election, if no changes at the shares market, I will just earn more money through my active income then pump it into shares market.
After election, if shares market drops, I will use SMF to buy more shares.

Plan carefully before election.

So what will happen to the shares market after the coming G.E. ?

My prediction is the market will rises, or drops, or no changes,
one of the three that I mentioned,
confirmed one will come true.

You don't believe me?
Well, just wait until the election ended,
then come to read this article again,
you will realized that my prediction was so correct,
since I am a genius.................
LOL just joking~

Actually............
I should try to predict the movement of shares market after G.E.,
is okay I predict wrongly since the followers of this blog is not a lot,
but if I predict correctly,
then I will become popular,
and everyone will worships me as God of Investment,
until one day my identity as a Fake God of Investment is discovered~

OKAY,
I shouldn't continue to waste everyone's precious time.
Sorry for my lame joke.

Anyway,
my investment plan for this coming G.E. will be the same as previous time.
If you still don't know what my plan is,
please go to bed and have a sleep,
after you woke up and be more energized,
then re-read this article please~

So............what's your investment plan for the coming G.E.?

Thanks for reading.




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